Trends and Group Differences in the Association between Educational Attainment and U.S. Adult Mortality: Implications for Understanding Education's Causal Influence

ABSTRACT: Has the shape of the association between educational attainment and U.S. adult mortality changed in recent decades? If so, is it changing consistently across demographic groups? This paper develops the argument that societal technological change may have had profound effects on the importance of educational attainment - particularly advanced education - in the U.S. adult population for garnering health advantages and that these changes should be reflected in changes in the functional form of the association between educational attainment and mortality. We review the historical evidence on the changing functional form of the association between educational attainment and adult mortality, drawing from studies based in the United States, to assess whether documented changes in the functional form are consistent with our argument about the role of technological change in influencing the association. We also provide an updated analysis of these functional form patterns and trends, contrasting data from the early 21st Century with data from the late 20th Century. This updated evidence suggests that the shape of the association between educational attainment and U.S. mortality appears to be reflecting lower and lower adult mortality for very highly educated Americans compared to their low-educated counterparts in the 21st Century.#4812