Orbital Police? How Open Source Intelligence Can Aid Diplomacy and Space Norms in Low Earth Orbit and Beyond

Since the onset of Russia's large-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the wide array of readily available data sets from commercial space platforms have allowed the world to understand the ongoing dynamics of both the military conflict and related civil and humanitarian issues in an unprecedented level of detail. With the official start of Winter just days away, and below-freezing temperatures on tap for Kyiv in the coming weeks, dramatic NASA satellite imagery released in late November showed a nationwide blackout from Lviv to Kharkiv, Kyiv to Kherson owing to continued Russian kinetic attacks on Ukrainian civil energy infrastructure.

What all of these examples have in common, is that unlike previous large-scale conflicts which relied on slowly-declassified satellite data released from governments around the world, the data now reaching both the expert community and the general public is captured and rapidly released by commercial entities operating powerful, multispectral imagers in low-Earth orbit. In practice, this has meant a renaissance for the open-source intelligence community, which can aid not only public understanding of the events unfolding on the ground, but as powerful tools for diplomats and aid workers attempting to support humanitarian efforts.

With these trends in mind, please join the Duke University Space Diplomacy Lab team for a timely discussion with Dr. Jonathan McDowell, Astrophysicist at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics (CfA) on the role that both government-sponsored science satellites and commercial orbital imaging platforms now play in supporting vital open-source intelligence work covering a wide array of issues, from geopolitical trends and humanitarian assistance delivery on the ground, to managing contingencies in space, like orbital traffic management and space debris tracking. We will discuss the need to engage in anticipatory diplomatic outreach, aided by space-based open-source intelligence data products, to help set norms and eventually, international treaties and regulations to build out the current space regulatory framework. Ultimately, such engagement will be crucial to help with mitigation and deconfliction to ensure the future safe and sustainable use of outer space. The discussion will take place in dialogue with members of the Duke University Space Diplomacy lab team, moderated by lab co-founders Professor Giovanni Zanalda and Dr. Benjamin L. Schmitt.