CEE Seminar - A Computational Framework to Support Government Policy-Making for Regional Disaster Resilience
This talk will introduce a computational framework that can be used to identify disaster risk management policy solutions based on behavior of the system as a whole, including interactions among multiple types of stakeholders (homeowners, insurers, government, reinsurers) and strategies (retrofit, insurance, property acquisition). Specifically, it supports the following government decisions: (1) how much to spend on mitigation, (2) how to regulate the price of extreme event insurance, (3) how to allocate spending between homeowner retrofit grants and property acquisition, and (4) how to design retrofit grant and acquisition programs (e.g., grant amount to offer). The framework includes four interacting mathematical models-stochastic programming optimization models to represent government and insurer decisions, empirical discrete choice models of individual homeowner decisions, and a regional loss estimation. It includes a description of how insurers and homeowners are expected to respond to government policies and what the outcomes will be for each stakeholder type. A full-scale application for hurricane risk in eastern North Carolina suggests it is possible to identify system-wide win-win solutions that are better both for each stakeholder type individually and for society as a whole.