Security, Peace & Conflict Workshop: Emerson Niou (Duke University) and Sean M. Zeigler (RAND Corp.)

Paper title: Alliances and 'Benevolent' Neutrality: A Formal Model of Friends and Allies

Abstract:
When and why do some states formally pledge to come to the assistance of others in the case of war, while others offer only assurances of non-involvement? The difference between these two approaches represents a strategic choice. Maintaining a 'friendly' relationship by pledging not to attack one another is a fair level removed from an official obligation to come to the aid of a partner in war. How do we explain this strategic calculus? In this paper, we develop a game-theoretic model to understand how nations choose strategically to form the type of alliance arrangement most suited to their respective interests.