The Jevons Paradox: Why increasing the energy efficiency of the economy is accelerating global climate change

Where does money get its value? What physically is economic value? How does economic value grow? For climate studies, this is a highly relevant question. As the economy grows, so does its emissions of carbon dioxide. And, of course, the accumulation of atmospheric carbon dioxide is changing global climate.In prior published studies, I have tried to show that civilization can be treated like a living organism or any other physical process, that is as an open, non-equilibrium thermodynamic system that dissipates energy and diffuses matter in order to sustain existing circulations and to further its material growth. Theoretical arguments and over 40 years of measurements show that a very general representation of global economic wealth (not GDP) has been tied to rates of global primary energy consumption through a constant 7.1 ± 0.1 mW per year 2005 USD. The implications for controlling CO2 emissions rates are rather stark. Improving energy efficiency merely accelerates carbon dioxide emissions. To stabilize emission rates at current levels, growth in wealth must cease, meaning that the inflation-adjusted GDP of civilization would need to drop to zero. Alternatively, we would need to switch to non-CO2 emitting power supplies at a rate equivalent to building about one nuclear power plant per day. This is unlikely, of course.