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Like Great-grandfather, Like Great-grandson? Multigenerational Mobility in American History

Zach Ward
Thursday, April 03, 2025
12:00 pm - 1:15 pm
Zach Ward - Baylor University
DUPRI Seminar Series

Social mobility over multiple generations is often lower than predicted by two-generational data, suggesting that traditional estimates fail to capture long-run mobility. Using novel US data (1850-1940) that links over 1.7 million individuals across four generations, we find that the economic status of great-grandchildren is strongly tied to that of their great-grandparents, with a transmission estimate of 0.43. This suggests low long-term equality of opportunity in American history. Yet this four-generation estimate is just 13% higher than predicted by two-generation estimates once we adjust for measurement error by using multiple observations per ancestor. If we ignore measurement error, as is standard in the historical literature, the gap between four- and two-generation estimates increases to 120%, creating a false impression that two-generational estimates substantially miss the mark on long-run mobility.

Contact: Linda Simpson