Advances in Adversarial Risk Analysis

In the talk I will present some of my recent works in the field of Adversarial Risk Analysis. In the first part I will talk about Adversarial Classification. In multiple domains such as malware detection, automated driving systems, or fraud detection, classification algorithms are susceptible to being attacked by malicious agents willing to perturb the value of instance covariates in search of certain goals. Such problems pertain to the field of adversarial machine learning and have been mainly dealt with, perhaps implicitly, through game-theoretic ideas with strong underlying common knowledge assumptions. These are not realistic in numerous application domains in relation to security. We present an alternative statistical framework that accounts for the lack of
knowledge about the attacker's behavior using adversarial risk analysis concepts.

In the second part I will discuss about an adversarial risk analysis framework for the software release problem. A major issue in software engineering is the decision of when to release a software product to the market. This problem is complex due to, among other things, the uncertainty surrounding the software quality and its faults, the various costs involved, and the presence of competitors.

A general adversarial risk analysis framework is proposed to support a software developer in deciding when to release a product and showcased with an example.