SPC Workshop: Sean Zeigler (RAND)

Sean Zeigler of RAND will present his talk, "Electoral Results and Economic Sanctions." The abstract is below.

Abstract:
Economic sanctions continue to be a tool utilized by states. However, their efficacy remains an open question. When and under what conditions do economic sanctions work? Answers to this question range from not at all to under very limited conditions. We advance this debate by looking at elections in counties targeted by economic sanctions. If sanctions are to have any chance at success, they should have political consequences for the regimes they target. But how do we know if sanctions may have political implications to incumbent regimes? We argue that the elections under which incumbent regimes are brought to power should reflect the strength of their mandate. When opposition parties gain in elections, as reflected by increased vote-share, incumbent regimes may be less able to withstand the potential consequences and costs associated with resisting economic sanctions. An empirical analysis of sanctions success and electoral outcomes indicates that sanctions are much more likely to be effective in countries where opposition parties are a threat to incumbent regimes as reflecting in election returns.